Spending on armaments and “peace through strength.” At the end of their special summit in Brussels last evening, the 27 EU heads of state and government reached a consensus. But they left behind a casualty: the Europe of peace. The current circumstances certainly call for security: Ukraine is a victim of Russian aggression; US President Trump’s administration is withdrawing from the European front (while adopting a contemptuous and occasionally threatening tone); EU governments see it as their duty to protect their citizens. Thus, at the special European Council, Ursula von der Leyen’s €800 billion ReArm plan for defence spending received its first unanimous green light, to be confirmed at the European Council on 20 and 21 March. Hungarian Prime Minister Orban backtracked on a second document concerning Ukraine. A “military summit” is on the agenda in Paris next week, which clearly reveals the direction of European politics.
Von der Leyen’s plan takes one step forward. Its name will probably change, as ‘ReArm’ is not to everyone’s liking, a point that Italian Prime Minister Meloni was keen to point out. But the nature of the plan will remain the same: it will involve defence industry spending (air defence, missiles and ammunition, drones, cyber systems), a major “adjustment” of the Stability Pact (via the unbundling of defence spending), the possible use of European cohesion funds earmarked for arms production (which the Italian government opposes), the involvement of private capital and funding from the EIB.
There are many knots to be untied, but once again the European Union is rediscovering its unity – ostensibly – in the face of historical circumstances. The issues on the table, in addition to ReArm, include the future role of NATO, whether or not to send ground troops to Ukraine, and the cost of rebuilding Ukraine, devastated by the violence of Putin and his army. “The European Council stresses – read the EU-27 Conclusions on defence – that Europe must become more sovereign, more responsible for its own defence and better equipped to act and deal autonomously with immediate and future challenges and threats in a 360° approach.” Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine “and its repercussions for European and global security in a changing environment constitute an existential challenge for the European Union.” As a result, the EU will “accelerate the mobilisation of the necessary instruments and financing in order to bolster the security of the European Union” and the protection of its citizens.” Extensive guidelines follow – financial guidelines in particular – for the step-by-step construction of a Europe of defence.
The Conclusions on Ukraine are equally complex, agreed without Orban’s endorsement owing to his close ties with Putin that prevent him from embracing a European perspective. “The European Union has from the very beginning stood by Ukraine as it exercises its inherent right to self-defence against Russia’s full-scale war of aggression, and it will continue to stand by Ukraine and its people.” The European Council thus reaffirms its “continued and unwavering support for the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine within its internationally recognised borders.”
However, Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine “has wider implications for European and international security.” Since the beginning of the war, “the European Union and its Member States, together with their partners and allies, have underlined the need to put an end to it through a comprehensive, just and lasting peace.” In this regard, the European Council “welcomes all efforts to achieve such a peace”.
In order to pave the way for peace negotiations, the European Council set out five non-negotiable principles: there can be no negotiations on Ukraine without Ukraine; there can be no negotiations that affect European security without Europe’s involvement; any ceasefire or truce can only take place as part of the process leading to a comprehensive peace agreement; any such agreement must be accompanied by robust and credible security guarantees for Ukraine that contribute to deterring future Russian aggression. Peace must respect Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Achieving “peace through strength”, reads the document signed in Brussels, “requires Ukraine to be in the strongest possible position, with Ukraine’s own robust military and defence capabilities as an essential component.” To that end, “the European Union remains committed, in coordination with like-minded partners and allies, to providing enhanced political, financial, economic, humanitarian, military and diplomatic support to Ukraine and its people, and to stepping up pressure on Russia, including through further sanctions and by strengthening the enforcement of existing measures, in order to weaken its ability to continue waging its war of aggression.”
